EasyJet's chief executive has warned that travel to Cyprus, Egypt and Turkey is only slowly recovering amid a broader shift in passenger demand away from eastern Mediterranean destinations, as the airline braces for a sharply higher first-half loss driven by the Iran war and soaring fuel costs.
Booking patterns shifting westward
Speaking to reporters on a media call, EasyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis said passengers are increasingly booking closer to their departure dates and have shown a preference for domestic routes and city destinations over eastern Mediterranean hotspots.
"It's a later booking window we're really seeing. And if there is any shift, it's a little bit away from the eastern Mediterranean, a little bit towards the Western Mediterranean," Jarvis said, adding that travel to Cyprus, Egypt and Turkey was nonetheless slowly recovering.
The comments come as European airlines prepare to report first-quarter results in the coming weeks, with analysts cautioning that further capacity cuts are likely as carriers grapple with the financial fallout from the ongoing conflict.
Wider financial impact on EasyJet
EasyJet forecast a headline pre-tax loss of between £540 million and £560 million for the first half of its financial year — significantly worse than the £394 million loss recorded in the same period a year earlier. The figures include an additional £25 million in fuel costs incurred in March and £30 million in expenses related to higher legal provisions.
The airline attributed the deteriorating outlook to the conflict in the Middle East, which it said had shortened the booking curve and reduced forward visibility for the business.
"The conflict in the Middle East has introduced near-term uncertainty around fuel costs and customer demand. As expected, the booking curve has shortened in recent weeks, resulting in lower than normal forward visibility," the company said in a statement.
Shares in EasyJet fell by as much as nine per cent on the news, with rivals Ryanair and Wizz Air also declining. Wizz Air had previously disclosed that its annual net profit would take a €50 million hit, while Lufthansa announced the withdrawal of 27 CityLine aircraft from service due to rising fuel costs.
Summer bookings under pressure
EasyJet said its summer bookings were tracking below 2025 levels, with third-quarter capacity 63 per cent sold compared with 65 per cent in the prior year. Fourth-quarter bookings for July to September stood at just 30 per cent sold, with Jarvis acknowledging that load factors remained uncertain.
"That will very much depend on what the late-summer market is like, and obviously what happens to the conflict in the next week or two," he said.
To manage fuel price volatility, the airline said it had hedged 70 per cent of its summer fuel requirements at $706 per metric ton. However, those hedges are set to unwind towards the end of the summer, potentially pushing costs — and fares — higher.
Dudley Shanley, head of aviation at Goodbody, said investor confidence had been dented. "We expect forecasts to come back for FY26," he said, noting that slower bookings and weaker yields were feeding into market scepticism.
Despite the challenges, EasyJet said its £4.7 billion liquidity position would help it navigate the difficult operating environment and continue working towards its medium-term financial targets. Analysts noted that the strength of its holidays business and its balance sheet could provide some buffer against sustained turbulence.
