Iran's mining of the Strait of Hormuz has raised the spectre of a prolonged global energy disruption, with Brent crude prices forecast to hold near $95 per barrel for months and ripple effects threatening economies across the Mediterranean, including Cyprus.

A critical chokepoint under threat

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most strategically significant energy corridor, carrying roughly 20% of global crude oil and natural gas supplies. Iran's decision to deploy mines in the waterway — a direct consequence of the ongoing US-Iran conflict — has introduced a complication that goes well beyond the immediate military standoff: the physical clearance of naval mines is a slow and painstaking process.

Veteran energy analyst Charles Ellinas underscored the gravity of the development in comments reported by the Financial Mirror:

"The Iranians have started mining the Strait of Hormuz, which is quite a massive development in the sense that once mines are deployed, it then takes a lot of time to clear the Strait. It's the duration of this conflict and even if President Trump decides next week to call an end to this, it may take more than two months before ships are able to go through the Strait."

Price forecasts and economic fallout

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has ventured a concrete price outlook tied to the conflict's duration. If hostilities persist for around two months, Brent crude is expected to remain at approximately $95 per barrel before falling back toward $70 by year-end — but only if a resolution is reached swiftly. Ellinas summarised the EIA's position:

"There is a major impact and the Energy Information Administration of the US ventured a forecast, saying that if this is going to last for a couple of months, they expect the Brent price to stay at about $95 a barrel and to come down to $70 only by the end of the year."

The broader economic consequences of sustained high crude prices are, in Ellinas's view, far-reaching:

"You can imagine that if prices for the next two to three months stay at $95 and drop slowly to $70 by the end of the year it's going to have a massive impact globally on the economy, on inflation, on the stock markets, on everything you can think of."

Beyond fuel: food, fertilisers, and shipping

The disruption to the Strait does not stop at crude oil prices. A closure of the waterway affects global supply chains for petrochemicals, fertilisers, and food, as well as broader shipping transport costs. For Mediterranean economies such as Cyprus — which imports the vast majority of its energy and relies on stable freight routes — a prolonged Hormuz closure would translate into higher costs across multiple sectors, from fuel at the pump to grocery shelves.

What comes next

Even an early diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict would not immediately restore normal transit through the Strait. The technical requirement to survey and clear mines means the effects of Iran's action will outlast any ceasefire by weeks or months. Markets, shipping insurers, and governments across the region are watching the pace of negotiations closely — aware that the timeline for relief is now measured not just in diplomatic progress, but in the speed of mine-clearance operations on the water.