By 2035, US data centres are projected to consume more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined, TechCrunch reports — a measure of the energy the artificial intelligence (AI) race is now expected to require.
Across the next decade, only exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to add more to growth in natural gas demand than data centres. The facilities could consume about 18 billion cubic feet per day, according to a new report from BloombergNEF — nearly double the amount the organisation predicted just nine months ago.
Some of that gas will never touch the electricity grid. Meta, Microsoft, Google and Amazon have each announced plans for new natural gas power plants that bypass the grid and supply their facilities directly, a trend that has drawn attention in recent months. Projects of that kind are expected to burn 2.9 billion to 3.4 billion cubic feet per day by 2035 — roughly what all data centres consume today, including the natural gas used to generate power for the grid.
Even so, onsite generation could account for only a fraction of the overall increase, according to BloombergNEF. The larger share stays on the grid: by the middle of the next decade, grid-connected data centres are predicted to add 15 billion cubic feet per day to the power sector's natural gas consumption. That is five times more demand growth through 2035 than from every other grid-connected sector combined.
Demand on that scale could push natural gas prices higher. Much of today's data centre buildout rests on the stable prices that have prevailed in recent years, but analysts at Noreva think that may be a false hope: the data centre boom and rising LNG exports together could cause prices to soar. Even if technology companies' balance sheets can absorb such a surge, utility ratepayers might not be able to.
The extra consumption carries an emissions cost. Burning one cubic foot of natural gas releases the equivalent of 60 grams of carbon dioxide once extraction, processing and distribution are included, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). TechCrunch reports that the additional demand from data centres will generate 1 million metric tons more greenhouse gas pollution every day — about 12% of total US greenhouse gas emissions today.
The price effect depends on that projected demand growth actually materialising. BloombergNEF's new forecast already takes into account that not all announced data centre projects will be completed.